Statistics of ENSO Past and Present: Comparing Climate Models to Coral Reconstructions

Figure 1: a) Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly (◦ C), 12/1997 McPhaden (1999). b) McGregor samples a fossil coral from Kiritimati, central equatorial Pacific. New wavelet-based statistical tools will be used to validate coupled climate models against coral reconstructions of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) over the past few thousand years. These novel statistical techniques, developed at CIRES, have shown promise in validating climate models against modern observations, but the short duration of observations has limited the power of the method. Taking advantage of an opportunity for synergistic collaboration with Australian scientists, we will perform the first statistically robust diagnosis of ENSO model/data agreement on millennial timescales. The project has potential for leaps in understanding coupled climate model performance and ENSO response to climate forcing, and it will initiate new international and interdisciplinary collaborations.